![]() ![]() The most accurate guide to Trump’s behavior has never been his views on a particular issue. This theory also leaves out Trump and highlights policy documents that he played little role in creating. He is still more motivated by narrow trade and economic concerns than by broader geopolitical interests in the Indo-Pacific. He is currently very hawkish on China, but that is possibly because he sees his rhetoric as a way to deflect attention from his failures on the coronavirus. Trump has never personally endorsed the key argument of his National Security Strategy, about great-power competition-not even in his December 2017 remarks introducing the plan. The responsible-nationalist theory has very little evidence to support it, though. strategy for an era of great-power competition, particularly against China. His administration’s key policy driver will be to transform U.S. For instance, he will be happy with NATO because member countries have committed to paying more for their own defense. With no elections left to fight and with a conviction that he set the world straight in his first term, he will let things be. With a loyal team in place, what does Trump want to do? The most optimistic theory is that he will be a responsible nationalist. Think of Jared Kushner as national security adviser or secretary of state if Republicans retain a majority in the Senate. This group also includes the ultra-ultras-Trump’s family members, who have played a role in his first term, and could be given formal positions of authority in a second. These are political operatives such as Richard Grenell, who was Trump’s ambassador to Germany and acted as director of national intelligence for 96 days, and retired military officers and now–cable-news commentators such as Anthony Tata and Douglas McGregor. The second group is the ultra-loyalists, who owe their positions entirely to Trump’s patronage. Trump may give these people senior positions, but they will not be free to contradict the president or to pursue their own agendas unless they temporarily align with Trump. They include Senators Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin. These figures are cut from the mold of Mike Pompeo. The first is senior Republicans who are steadfastly loyal even if they personally disagree with Trump on certain issues, such as Russia or military intervention in the Middle East. In a second term, Trump will insist on loyalty with every appointment, but two types of loyalists exist. ![]() If he is still president on January 21, Trump will feel utterly vindicated by a second unlikely victory-thinking that only he is truly in touch with the American people. He systematically purges his government of those who stand up to him and replaces them with loyalists who indulge his whims and worldview. Trump’s first term has had a clear narrative arc. ![]()
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